ThePrimeMinister.Com

Life is all numbers  - when /what time we enter this planet & so what time we exit!

but in between whether we make that appointment or miss that number call -

it can & who knows change everything or certainly create a different journey.

Always not just easy but a waste!  to look backwards & say 'if only'! but whilst we are in current motion, be or try to be, a little less predictable or so called cautious which is another excuse for an excuse to think excessive, rather than go just go with the flow

'Take It Easy'    

(  we are not referring to cheap Orange Travel ! )

Would you like to take 5.5 Million &

reach 128 Million in 6 easy steps

All Transparent / so no magic  -

all through regulated exchanges,

so no prior type hedge fund nonsense/games re pricing etc or pretend mathematical games.

access 24 hours -

so no  'side pockets' or 'last minute lock ins' etc  just call up & if you wish,transfer what you wish when you wish to whom you wish.

Total acesibility & transparency.

So we shall go through the simple    6   yes six steps to why 5  & a half Million can be traded up to one hundred & twenty eight through  absolute numbers commitment with market manipulation & psychology

   yes   6 S T E P S

we take 500K   yes  five hundred thousand   dollars  -

This is through one of the many brokers that is assigned on a platform- & traded - when funds hit 1,000,000 yes double 

the owner of funds  - now matches the account with another 1,000,000. 

Now the account  has  a new Total   of  2.000,000  ( 2 Million)

we once again &  step  2- shall double funds -

through scalping trading the ins & outs of the on off daily volatility- so numerous the number of opportunities , it is like taking a bus,never run after it , if you have missed the entrance, leave it , as there is always another one on route if we are covering the 18 hour trading window- there are many scalping opportunities- for the addicted -

SO     the 2 Million   ( 2,000000)   is now 4MIO  (4,000,000.) 

as it has been doubled-

& the owner of funds now for the third & last - will match the account with 4  Million ( 4,000,000.) 

so    the account is now  8  Million  ( 8,000,000.)

&  this has had a total of 5.5 committed

with a open credit of profits  of 2.5

when   the account  the third time is doubled  -

so we will have 16MIO  16,000,000

when at  16MIO  now   - no more    new funds are added--

BUT

we treat the account as if it was back at stage one re we shall double 3 times

16    will get to     32

32    will get to     64

& 64    will get to 128

but when the 128  MILLION is hit -  no more stretching odds, & the elastic  mental band of psychological manipulation re markets etc

close & reinvest the surplus funds in soothing quite very different-

necromancer will be 20 % of that from   an initial investment of 5.5  less the new total  

at anytime the account falters and falls by 20% of each of those stages - valuations the account is stopped and no more trading is conducted .-

Products traded;

currencies

indices &

select commodities.

Remember only   in August we saw one currency Dollar Swiss move up 20% and then drop 20% then go up 10 % to drop 20% this is real movement and to be ahead of the numbers mean understanding history!

Evaluating an emerging manager is a fickle task. By definition, emerging means that a manager is up & coming (or maybe just coming, and not even up yet) and likely has a shorter track record. 

More information on emerging managers, & we have looked for ways to oblige that request without just throwing up a spotlight on a manager and program we know very little about.

Enter 'BrazBox' Systems, whose manager we have known for many years & whose track record we have been tracking “live” on our books a considerable time. 

An emerging manager that is familiar with both sides of the CTA industry. For many years 'ECT'who is  principle in the BrazBox program, 

With a short-term commodity system that was “different” from other multimarket managed futures programs. 

THE MANAGER

The trading models used by BB  are in charge of all trading and trading model development. In contrast to many money managers who do not have 25 year market deja vu experience &d have witnessed first hand many market manipulations & psychological games - 

Tecnical  trading is the most logical way to trade. Own price action based indicators including the original ideas that are used for BB.

Witnessed a wide variety of managed futures programs and trading styles, first through  ifrst hand experience-

Yet one of the biggest obstacles was creating a model which outperformed on a risk reward basis and had shorter trade duration.”

BB is what we may call a short to medium term systematic, multimarket CTA that employs mathematical models to analyze technical market information in order to generate signals across a portfolio of 36 liquid Futures markets. The program was developed by the partners of BB & includes seven individual trading models, along with portfolio-overlaying volatility filters that look to eliminate “noise” from market data in order to portray a clearer view of the trend or countertrend environment in each market.

While the team at BB tends to think of themselves as a short-term program (the proper categorization might be shorter term), they do have some models which will hold a trade for a single day only, but they also have some trades which could last several months to a year in their longest-term models. On average, their trades last about 12 days, making them shorter term than many of the classic systematic multimarket programs, but not quite as short-term as some programs whose average hold time is one to two days.

As alluded to above with the programs trading across multiple timeframes (1 day to 1 year), the BB program is designed to be diversified across multiple facets of risk, employing a multi-strategy, multimarket, and multi-timeframe approach.

MULTI-STRATEGY

The program uses seven separate systems which are applied to each of the markets it tracks. The seven different models include programs based on regression analysis, volatility breakout, pattern recognition, oscillators, countertrend models and what the managers call “anticipated” trend models.

The systems are employed together based on a belief that they will be uncorrelated to one another over the long term, although it is possible for similar trades to be generated over the short term. Typically, each system is only active about 60 percent of each year on average due to the various noise and volatility filters used to identify poor trading periods.

While most of us know what a trend strategy and even a countertrend strategy is,   BrazBox ’s anticipated trend strategies certainly sound like something new. And while some other programs actually do similar things, it is a far less common (read: unique) method, as traditionally this type of model is much more difficult to develop because the program is attempting to identify a trend in the market BEFORE it happens. In contrast, most trend-following managers look to enter into a trend AFTER it has appeared (e.g., when prices break out above a 100-day Bollinger band).

The anticipated trend strategies BB utilizes are designed somewhat differently, looking to predict future market moves rather than simply react to trends that have already taken place. If you’re thinking no model could predict a future trend with accuracy any better than a coin flip, you are probably right.

But if you reread our recent column The Percent Profitable Fallacy, you’ll see it doesn’t really matter how good they are at predicting them. It’s all about doing quite well when they do predict them correctly and not doing extremely poorly when they don’t.

BrazBox put a lot of thought into the latter part of that formula (not doing extremely poorly when they are wrong), the result of which is their portfolio-wide risk overlay/filter which only allows a fraction of the actual trades signaled because of the possibility that current market conditions may not be conducive to a winning trade.

MULTIMARKET

BB trades the usual suspects amongst the active U.S. futures markets, including currency, energy, equity, fixed-income, agriculture and metals sectors. All seven systems trade across all 36 markets.

Operationally, each of the seven systems orders are executed market on close (MOC) when Applied believes markets are typically more liquid. Another somewhat unique aspect is Applied’s risk controls, where none of the systems have resting stops in the market. Rather, the BB program uses what the managers call a “time” stop where they give each trade a specific time frame within to work and then re-evaluate as necessary if the trade is not working as expected. They note that the actual use of the time stop does not occur frequently and is designed and used more to enforce the short term trading theme of the program.

The systems also use what the manager calls “fair-value” targets, which are projected targets or crossover points for which each market will eventually reach. These fair-value targets are different from traditional profit targets in that they are not based on the overall profitability of the trade; rather, they have been determined by the conditions of the marketplace. Once the system has detected a fair value point where it believes the market is fairly priced it will look to exit the trade.

BB also manages risk by employing dynamic updating portfolio parameters and weights. This entails using a restricted mean-variance weighting system along with some forward looking dynamics (including expected returns and covariance) for selecting markets and weights for the next monthly trading period. Currently, each trade can take up to 5 percent max risk of total portfolio capital although most trades are between 2 percent and 3 percent.

With  a shorter- term trading program,this has anactive filtering, which eliminates trades that have a lower chance of success.

RC  & BB COMMENTS

The past 24 months have been rather turbulent for most multimarket CTAs, as they have battled declining volatility and high correlation across portfolio components. Despite BBl starting right in the thick of this poor period, it has stood out to us as a unique trader that has been able to take advantage of both short-term trends and countertrend market moves.

One unique feather in the BB team’s cap is that they have had success trading the forex markets, which many multimarket programs tend to struggle with given their often sharp pullbacks. Typically, currency markets are one of the most difficult sectors to trade with a systematic program due to government intervention as well as numerous spikes in the market around key reports and interest rate decisions.

Another positive point is that even though the BB Systems program is new to the CTA space, it is being managed by pair who have been there before and have been in and around large CTA allocations and trading volume.

ECT's experience allocating fund and bank capital to various CTAs, in particular, seems to have taught him that the primary job of a CTA is to be a risk manager first, then a return generator, not the other way around. Furthermore, his experience as an allocator to money managers has given him a unique point of view of the pitfalls that trip up new managers and trading programs. Because of this, we expect that BB  will be able to avoid many of the common organizational mistakes we see from new CTAs.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures based investments are often complex and can carry the risk of substantial losses. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The  Rabbit  Year  !!

the wealth star will shine brightly.